Passenger Rail Transport in France - Market Size, Industry Analysis, Trends and Forecasts (2025-2029)

Passenger Rail Transport in France industry analysis

France's passenger rail transport industry has seen robust growth in recent years, slightly increasing its share of the broader passenger transport market. SNCF, the main provider of rail passenger services in France, has played a central role in this expansion by developing its high-speed TGV network. This has improved accessibility and reduced journey times on major routes such as Paris-Lyon. In addition, the revitalisation of regional rail services and the provision of night trains has boosted this growth, with both regional TER services and night trains seeing a significant increase in passenger numbers. Over the five years through 2025, industry revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 1.4% to €28.7 billion, including a 0.7% increase in 2025 alone.
The French rail passenger market is currently undergoing liberalisation, driven by regulatory changes in the European Union. With the introduction of competition, new players such as Trenitalia have entered the market, offering services on high-demand routes. In response, SNCF has diversified and adapted its offering by providing low-cost Ouigo services and premium TGV InOui trains, which are driving passenger growth and improving service quality to meet evolving customer demands. Despite challenges such as high infrastructure costs and complex regulations that deter new market entrants, initiatives focusing on customer experience and innovation were largely successful. This competitive landscape increasingly serves both price-sensitive and premium segments, creating a more vibrant rail transport market.
Over the five years through 2030, revenue is set to increase by 1.1% to €30.3 billion. The ambitious ‘New Rail Deal’, announced in 2023, aims to modernise the network over the next decades, address issues such as ageing infrastructure and align train services with environmental goals. Key projects include new lines to improve connectivity and travel efficiency. While financial constraints may pose challenges, solutions such as public-private partnerships should mitigate risks. At the same time, SNCF's investments in next-generation TGVs and the electrification of the network will promote sustainability, with advances in AI boosting operational efficiency. International cooperation will strengthen cross-border operations, particularly through projects such as ERTMS. These initiatives are designed to make rail transport more attractive, support France's environmental goals and strengthen its role in the European rail network.

Trends and Insights

• Slovenia, Spain, Turkey and Montenegro boost their revenue share. Slovenia and Spain recorded the highest growth in rail passenger numbers in 2021 as travel bounced back from the COVID-19 pandemic, upping their contribution to revenue.
• Commuter passenger numbers edge downwards. Passenger numbers were steadily climbing between 2015 and 2019, but they’ve struggled since COVID-19 hit, failing to bounce back to pre-pandemic levels as fewer people commute to work.
• Competition in individual regions is low. Once train operating companies win a contract, they have a natural monopoly on the area they serve, so they don’t have to compete with other providers.