Petroleum Refining in France - Market Size, Industry Analysis, Trends and Forecasts (2025-2029)

Petroleum Refining in France industry analysis

The petroleum refining industry in France has experienced notable fluctuations in recent years, largely influenced by external factors such as global oil prices and government intervention. In 2022, refinery revenues surged as global oil prices skyrocketed, driven by sanctions on Russian energy exports and coordinated production cuts by OPEC+. This upward price momentum saw refineries benefitting from higher selling prices for petroleum products, even as pressures mounted from rising competition with renewable energy sources. The industry managed to sustain elevated revenue levels through 2024 amid a backdrop of extended production restrictions by oil cartels, despite a stabilisation in prices compared to peak levels observed in 2022. Over the five years through 2025, industry revenue is projected to climb at a compound annual rate of 10.5%, reaching €48.7 billion in 2025 despite an estimated 2.4% dip in revenue in the final year.
A shift away from diesel vehicles, which were once favoured thanks to government subsidies and their lower CO2 emissions, has reorientated the market. This decline was precipitated by concerns over harmful NOx emissions and the resulting policy change that saw new diesel car registrations in France falling from over 60% of the total to just 10% within 10 years, according to Eurostat. Consequently, refiners have had to adapt their production processes to meet the rising demand for petrol and electric vehicles. Alongside these challenges, the broader push towards renewable energy utilisation has meant a reduction in the share of oil and petroleum products in France’s energy mix, further pressuring the industry to diversify its focus and innovate.
With the EU setting stringent targets for zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035, the long-term viability of petroleum-based refineries hinges on their ability to pivot towards cleaner alternatives. The necessity for substantial investment in biofuel research and development is paramount, especially as France ramps up its biofuel blending targets to comply with EU mandates. Petroleum refining companies are also increasingly diversifying their operations and embracing renewable energy. Industry revenue is projected to swell at a compound annual rate of 2.3% over the five years through 2030, reaching €54.4 billion.

Trends and Insights

• Downstream demand has been hit heavily recently. The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent drop in passenger-kilometres hit sales of petrol, diesel and kerosene, which are major products for petroleum refineries.
• Vehicle fuels face rising competition from low-carbon alternatives. Demand for diesel, particularly, is dropping as fleet operators and individuals increasingly switch to electric vehicles.
• The European petroleum refining industry is fairly concentrated. A handful of companies in each country dominate the refining scene, with acquisitions of smaller players common.