Total merchandise imports and exports

IBISWorld forecasts that the total value of merchandise trade will increase by 6.3% in 2025-26, reaching $163.7 billion. This expansion in trade value is expected to be driven by increased export revenue, with total exports expanding by 12.7% over the first eight months of 2025-26 compared to the same period in 2024-25. This increase has been driven by increased demand from European and UAE trade partners, as the benefits of the New Zealand-European Union Free Trade Agreement (NZ-EU FTA) and the recently legislated New Zealand-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (NZ-UAE CEPA) have come to fruition. Merchandise trade imports are also expected to expand in 2025-26, as values increased by around 3.8% in the first quarter of 2025-26 and by 1.0% in the second quarter. Strong import value in June, particularly for petroleum and petroleum products, has contributed to more optimistic estimates for the remainder of 2025-26.

The pandemic significantly impacted international trade during 2020-21, resulting in a substantial decline in the value of merchandise imports and exports. Restrictions on domestic travel and other government measures in New Zealand and abroad led to a global economic slowdown, resulting in a decline in exports and imports. Imports were affected by global supply chain issues and significant congestion at major New Zealand ports, which constrained sea trade volumes. Exports faced challenges due to depressed global demand and lower dairy and commodity prices. However, merchandise trade values rebounded strongly in 2021-22 and 2022-23. Large spikes in oil prices due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict caused the value of refined petroleum imports to skyrocket, as New Zealand's reliance on imported fuel meant that price increases had a minimal effect on demand. The value of road vehicle imports also increased as consumers were able to travel again after the relaxation of pandemic restrictions. Dairy prices also expanded significantly during this period, which supported growth in merchandise trade value from export markets.

In 2023-24, demand for trade benefitted from the entry into force of the New Zealand-United Kingdom Free Trade Agreement. While dairy and meat exports increased in volume, sharp declines in prices that had supported record export revenue in previous years caused the total value of exports to decline. The value of imported merchandise also slumped in 2023-24. Petroleum import prices fell significantly after reaching record highs in 2022-23. The volume of road vehicle imports also fell significantly. Given that petroleum and road vehicles comprise around 20.0% of New Zealand's imports, the poor performance of these commodities was a significant driver of the 8.2% decline in the total value of merchandise trade imports 2023-24. Weak household economic conditions, including low consumer sentiment and household discretionary incomes also constrained consumer spending, which limited demand for imports.

In 2024-25, merchandise trade imports declined in the early stages of the year, as the economy experienced a significant reduction in the value of vehicles, parts and accessories imported. However, import demand recovered in the later stages of the year, resulting in a slight overall increase in the value of merchandise imported. Demand for New Zealand's exports was also supported by the NZ-EU FTA, which came into force in May 2024. The NZ-EU FTA allowed growth in dairy and beef exports to Europe, where they had historically been constrained by quotas and high tariffs. Dairy export prices also jumped significantly in 2024-25, boosting export revenue for New Zealand dairy farmers. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts total merchandise imports and exports to grow at a compound annual rate of 7.2% over the five years through 2025-26.