Value of merchandise trade exports

IBISWorld forecasts that the value of merchandise trade exports will rise by 11.0% in 2025-26 to reach $81.98 billion. Through the first eight months of 2025-26, the total value of exports traded increased by $6.01 million compared to the same period in 2024-25, an increase of 12.7%. This growth trajectory has driven up expectations for the annual figure, assuming exports remain strong between December 2025 and March 2026. Over this period, the New Zealand dollar has depreciated against the Euro, making New Zealand exports less expensive for European buyers. Given that 2025-26 is the first full year that the New Zealand-European Union Free Trade Agreement has been in force, demand from European import buyers was likely to rise naturally throughout the year. However, the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar against the Euro has created a perfect storm of economic conditions, driving a double-digit percentage uptick in export revenue for New Zealand businesses. The New Zealand-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which has largely removed tariffs on New Zealand's exports for UAE importers, also entered into force in August 2025, further supporting export revenue growth.

New Zealand's value of merchandise trade exports has faced a consistent long run growth trajectory dating back to the 1980s. A large percentage of this growth has been driven by the country's dairy industry, which has a strong competitive advantage from its optimal climate and the presence of large companies with significant economies of scale. According to data from the Ministry of Primary Industries, dairy export revenue eclipsed $27.1 million in the 12 months through June 2025, accounting for around a third of all export revenue from New Zealand. Dairy prices rose strongly between 2019-20 and 2022-23, boosting dairy exports both in value and as a share of total New Zealand exports. Many Asian middle-class markets have expanded significantly over the past five years, particularly in China. New Zealand dairy products tend to be viewed as premium alternatives in these markets, which has driven overseas demand for domestically produced raw and processed products. In particular, milk powder exports have grown substantially. The signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which came into force in January 2022, and the removal of dairy product tariffs in the New Zealand-China FTA in January 2024 have also supported growth in exports to the greater Asia-Pacific region.

While long-term growth in exports has supported the New Zealand economy, both 2020-21 and 2023-24 were rare years when the annual value of exports declined. In 2020-21, complications caused by the pandemic resulted in declines in demand across the global economy. As a result, market oversupply caused prices for many key export commodities to drop. However, a quicker-than-expected economic recovery in China helped constrain the fall in exports during the year. The value of merchandise trade exports also fell by 4.4% in 2023-24. While the entry into force of the New Zealand-United Kingdom Free Trade Agreement (NZ-UK FTA) in May 2023 provided a boost to overall trade volumes, sharp declines in dairy and meat prices that had supported record export revenue in previous years caused the total value of exports to decline. However, the dairy export price index rebounded by 12.5% in 2024-25, according to Statistics New Zealand, helping offset the poor performance of New Zealand's exports in 2023-24. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the value of merchandise trade exports to increase at a compound annual rate of 7.0% over the five years through 2025-26.