Passenger rail journeys

There will be an estimated 1,897 million passenger rail journeys in 2026-27, representing a five-year compound annual growth rate of 13.9% from 2021-22, a year that was still impacted by COVID era lockdowns and travel restrictions. The recovery has been robust: journeys reached 1,384.8 million in 2022-23, and 1,728.7 million in 2024-25, with the latter still marginally below the pre-pandemic 2019-20 level of 1,738.7 million. Rail passengers are expected to have reached a new record in 2025-26, with Q2 2025-26 recording the highest-ever quarterly journey count at 466 million.

The mainline railway network in Great Britain comprises 15,935 km of route (of which 38% is electrified) and 2,569 stations. The structural composition of the industry is undergoing a shift: under the public ownership programme launched in December 2024, multiple train operating companies, including South Western Railway, c2c, Greater Anglia, and West Midlands Trains, have been transferred into public ownership, with Govia Thameslink Railways to follow in May 2026. The Railways Bill, introduced to Parliament in November 2025, will establish Great British Railways (GBR) as a single directing mind integrating track and train operations.

The Elizabeth line, which opened in May 2022, has been a significant structural contributor to growth, adding a 10% rail capacity increase in central London and generating up to 4.7 million journeys per week, making it the UK's busiest railway. More than 300 million journeys were made on the line in its first two operating years alone.

Key demand drivers remain consistent: commuter activity (with nearly two-thirds of all rail journeys starting or ending in London), ticket affordability relative to alternative modes, service reliability, and hybrid working patterns. Working from home, which doubled from 4.7 million to 9.9 million workers between 2019 and 2022, remains a structural headwind on commuter volumes, moderating the pace of recovery relative to pre-pandemic trends.