Number of deaths

In 2026, the number of deaths is expected to reach 2.89 million, extending the decline that began in 2022. The drop reflects ongoing medical advances in drug treatments and therapies that help patients manage or survive life-threatening diseases, including new formulations and delivery methods that make medications easier to use and more effective. Efforts to curb violent crime are also contributing, as states expand community violence intervention programs and law enforcement agencies prioritize actions against violent gangs and high-risk offenders, reducing some causes of premature death. At the same time, a recent decrease in overdose deaths provides an additional tailwind for lower overall mortality, even if the outlook remains mixed because the growing presence of synthetic street drugs still poses a serious risk and limits how far overdose-related deaths can fall.

Between 2021 and 2026, the number of deaths experienced significant fluctuations, driven mainly by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and broader demographic trends. In 2021, deaths increased by 2.4%, following an acute 18.5% spike in 2020 because of the pandemic, as both direct viral impacts and healthcare system disruptions led to excess mortality. In 2022, the situation reversed, with a 5.3% decline in deaths as vaccination rates improved and public health measures took effect, helping to temper the increases seen in prior years. In 2023, the death toll declined further by 8.7%, and the number of deaths fully reverted to pre-pandemic levels by 2024. Rising investment in healthcare facilities and research, alongside improved access to treatment, provided a partial counterbalance to the COVID-19 pandemic's increased deaths, helping to moderate the rise by 2025.

In summary, while deaths rose sharply in 2020–2021 due to the pandemic, the following years saw a gradual stabilization at pre-pandemic levels. Advancements in health technologies and expanded access to elder care have also reduced the mortality rate, despite the increasing average age of the US population.