Domestic price of beef

IBISWorld expects the domestic price of beef to rise by 1.0% during 2025-26, to 171.2 index points. Beef and veal production is anticipated to decline during the year following a surge in output over the prior three years. As supply drops this is set to place upward pressure on saleyard prices, which will then be passed on down the supply chain to consumers.

The domestic price of beef has risen over the past five years. Beef production has been volatile over the past five years, but has risen overall. Output was depressed across 2020-21 and 2021-22 as farmers focused on rebuilding their herds following a severe drought. Declining turn-off rates led to record-high prices for feeder cattle over the two years through 2021-22, pushing up the domestic price of beef. Pandemic-related disruptions impacting meat processing and transport businesses also led to beef shortages feeding through to higher consumer prices. Turn-off rates then shot-up over the three years through 2024-25, with lower prices at the retail level realised in 2023-24. While production is set to drop in 2025-26, volumes have risen overall.

Demand for Australian beef in export markets has expanded substantially over the past couple of decades, and now accounts for over half of production. Rising incomes among the middle class in many Asian nations, particularly China, have made high-quality agricultural products more affordable to this group of consumers. Given Australia's high-quality produce reputation, rising incomes have resulted in strong demand growth for Australian beef. In addition, the implementation of free trade agreements with China, Japan and South Korea, coupled with the weak Australian dollar, has improved the price competitiveness of domestic products in overseas markets, further boosting export demand for Australian beef.

Export volumes of beef fell at the start of the period. Pandemic restrictions in overseas markets like Japan weakened demand over the two years through 2021-22. Rising diplomatic tensions with Australia saw China place restrictions on imports of Australian beef in late 2019-20. However, export volumes lifted as global demand rose. Exports to the United States has climbed over the three years through 2024-25 as the country's farmers rebuild their herds following drought. Tensions with China have also eased, boosting exports. Exports have climbed as a share of production, placing upward pressure on domestic prices. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the domestic price of beef to increase at a compound annual rate of 2.4% over the five years through 2025-26.