Number of deaths

IBISWorld forecasts the number of deaths in Australia to rise by 2.1% in 2025-26 to reach 189,600. Two main factors are at play here. Firstly, the Australian population is not only growing but also ageing, naturally leading to more deaths, with dementia being a leading cause according to the ABS as of 2024 (latest data on cause). Secondly, there is the growing number of vehicle accidents (a leading cause of mortality) due to possible factors like larger vehicles and the deterioration of regional and rural roads, placing upwards pressure on the number of deaths.

Population growth typically causes the number of deaths to increase each year, but in some years, the number of deaths actually decreases. These years often coincide with a higher-than-average increase in deaths the year before or the year after. The number of deaths typically spikes during each September quarter due to colder winter weather, which increases the risk of death from cardiovascular and respiratory disease. Lower temperatures negatively impact the health of people with weaker immune systems, like the very young and the elderly, both of which have comparatively higher death rates than the remainder of the population throughout a given year. Leading causes of death in Australia include heart disease, dementia, strokes and lung cancer.

Advances in medical technology have significantly boosted life expectancy rates, as the latest data show that men and women born between 2022 and 2024 are likely to live to 81.1 and 85.1 years, respectively, a notable increase from 79.9 years and 84.3 years a decade ago. Improved safety regulations, both at workplaces and on roads, have also aided in lowering death rates. However, this promising narrative is interrupted by two key factors. Firstly, Australia's growing population naturally escalates the total number of deaths. Secondly, the 2022-24 period saw a significant surge in deaths at the beginning due to the pandemic, particularly the Delta and Omicron variants and indirect deaths surrounding delayed medical care and mental health issues. Hence, while medical and regulatory advancements are making headway in enhancing life longevity, the influences of population growth and global health emergencies continue to shape Australia's overall mortality landscape. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the number of deaths in Australia to grow at a compound annual rate of 2.7% over the five years through 2025-26.