Consumer confidence index

In 2025, the Index of Consumer Confidence in Canada is projected to increase 27.3% to an index value of 88.6, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of -7.0% from 2020 to 2025. This rise is set to be driven predominantly by easing trade tensions with the United States, which have negatively impacted expectations surrounding economic conditions. Concerns regarding household finances, employment prospects, and business environments have suppressed consumers' willingness to make significant investments in homes, vehicles, and other major purchases. Despite efforts by monetary authorities to mitigate these pressures through central bank rate cuts, overarching financial and trade-related anxieties have largely diminished periods of optimism witnessed earlier in the decade.

Over the 2021-2026 period, consumer confidence fell from a temporary recovery in 2021 that was fueled by vaccination campaigns and increased consumer demand. Subsequent factors, including emerging COVID-19 variants, global supply chain disruptions, and rising inflation, inhibited sustained positive momentum. Moreover, geopolitical tensions like the Ukraine conflict in 2022 compounded the uncertainty. The Bank of Canada's rate hikes further strained household financial capabilities, adding to consumer apprehension. Throughout 2023 and 2024, wage stagnation and elevated costs for essential goods perpetuated a downtrodden consumer outlook, further exacerbated in 2025 by renewed US-Canada trade conflicts affecting export prospects and employment.