Average annual precipitation

Annual rainfall levels are projected to rise 8.5% in 2026, reaching 31.6 inches, driven by a pronounced La Niña event that will make the year noticeably wetter than 2025 across much of the United States, particularly in vulnerable regions. This system will primarily affect areas stretching from the Great Lakes through the Southeast, supporting a relatively stable pattern of frequent wet seasons over the year. While the severity of impacts will vary by region, the overall effect will be a clear increase in precipitation, giving forecasters a distinctly wet year to integrate into models, risk assessments and long-term planning assumptions.

Over the five-year period from 2021 to 2026, annual precipitation in the United States exhibited notable fluctuations, influenced heavily by the interplay between drought periods and increased storm activity. The period started with a recovery in 2021, with only marginal growth of 0.1% following a pronounced drought in 2020. Precipitation declined again in 2022, falling by 6.4%, as dry conditions persisted across much of the West and Southwest. In 2023, precipitation levels rebounded by 3.8%, attributed to regional shifts in storm activity, particularly in states previously experiencing below-average rainfall. These variations highlight the impact of warmer temperatures in shaping local drought severity and rainfall totals, since regions outside primary storm tracks remain vulnerable to drier conditions. In 2024, heightened hurricane activity drove a big 7.1% increase in precipitation, pushing totals well above the five-year average.

Macro trends such as rising global temperatures and the increased frequency of extreme weather events remain critical drivers of precipitation rates in the United States. Climate change has resulted in a heightened occurrence of both storms and droughts, producing year-to-year variability and complicating long-term predictions. This volatility has contributed to a slow increase in national average rainfall when examined over a multi-decade period, but the five-year window from 2021 to 2025 demonstrates the more immediate impacts of climate variability, including regional disparities and the increased risk of secondary events such as wildfires.

Looking at the five-year period as a whole, the trend in average precipitation has been marked by short-term volatility despite a marginal overall increase. The national average edged higher in part due to record-setting years of rainfall and increased hurricane activity, while persistent droughts in key agricultural and western regions tempered overall gains. The interplay between increased storm frequency and continued vulnerability to drought events has kept the growth in precipitation modest, evidenced by the 0.8% rise in average annual rainfall between 2021 and 2026.