Inbound trips by non-US residents

Inbound trips by non-US residents to the United States are projected to reach 73.7 million in 2025, representing a 1.8% increase from 2024 but the slowest growth rate seen since the pandemic rebound. Strained trade relations with Canada, heightened immigration enforcement, and more rigorous security checks present increasing headwinds to international travel demand. Prospective tourists are more reluctant to travel for leisure, opting for essential or event-driven trips rather than discretionary or extended visits. These factors moderate the overall expansion of inbound travel and reshape the composition of incoming visitors.

Across 2020 to 2025, inbound trips were defined by marked volatility due to the COVID-19 pandemic and fluctuating policy responses. International arrivals plummeted 75.8% in 2020 as travel bans were imposed and consumer sentiment dropped. The return of global travel in 2021 was gradual and inconsistent, as continued restrictions and low confidence kept arrival volumes below pre-pandemic benchmarks. Demand surged in 2022 with a 127.9% uptick as restrictions loosened and pent-up demand was released, marking the fastest growth in the period. Capacity was capped by long US visa wait times, with average waits for first-time travelers extending over a year, and sporadic reintroduction of testing requirements constrained specific markets, notably China in 2023. While 2024 saw a 22.9% rebound, surpassing pre-pandemic levels thanks to improved visa processing, affordability, and increased travel safety, the climb was tempered by emerging geopolitical tensions and uneven recovery in global source markets. Throughout these years, policy interventions, visa accessibility, and international shocks shaped the pace and pattern of recovery, with economic fundamentals supporting sustained travel growth.

Over the five-year period ending in 2025, inbound trips grew at a 30.8% compound annual rate, albeit from an extremely low base in 2020. Broader trends such as global economic recovery, easing pandemic restrictions, and improved pricing for travel services supported the rebound. Regulatory changes, security policies, and the fluctuating state of international relations remain substantial external influences on US inbound travel, underscoring the sector's ongoing susceptibility to global shocks.