Total exports

Total US exports are projected to reach $2,647.65 billion in 2025, marking a 22.7% increase from $2,157.80 billion in 2020 and representing a compound annual growth rate of 4.2% over the five-year period. This period experienced significant volatility, with exports rebounding 6.5% in 2021 following the pandemic-induced contraction in 2020, surging 7.6% in 2022 as global demand recovered, then moderating to 2.8% growth in 2023 and 3.6% in 2024 before slowing dramatically to just 0.5% in 2025. US exports totaled $522.61 billion through the first quarter of 2025, marking the third consecutive year that first-quarter exports exceeded $500 billion, with seven of the top ten export categories reaching all-time highs. However, export growth decelerated sharply in the latter half of 2025 due to tariff uncertainty, weakening global demand, and retaliatory measures from trading partners.

The recovery from 2020 to 2022 was driven primarily by rebounding global economic activity following COVID-19 disruptions, rising commodity prices and strong demand from major trading partners. Energy-related products experienced exceptional growth during this period, with energy exports surging 58.1% in 2021 alone as fossil fuel prices increased globally due to recovering demand and limited supply expansions. Pipeline gas exports to Mexico increased 130.4% in 2021, reaching $13.9 billion as new cross-border pipelines entered service and Mexican demand for electricity and heating rose. Chemicals and related products grew 26.1% in 2021, while minerals and metals increased 32.2% as commodity price appreciation amplified trade values. Services exports climbed steadily throughout the period, supported by higher receipts from intellectual property charges, transportation services, and government-related transactions.

Export growth to key trading partners showed divergent patterns from 2020 to 2025. Canada and Mexico remained the largest export destinations, benefiting from proximity and trade agreement provisions under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Exports to Taiwan surged 1,492% since 2018 and increased 314.83% year-over-year as semiconductor-related shipments and computer equipment sales expanded dramatically. Conversely, exports to China faced headwinds from ongoing trade tensions, with China falling from third to 16th place as a purchaser of US computers as tariffs disrupted traditional supply chains. The imposition of comprehensive tariffs beginning in April 2025 created significant uncertainty for exporters, potentially triggering front-loading of shipments in early 2025 before tariff implementation.