Total trade value

Total US trade is projected to reach $6.42 trillion in 2025, marking a 29.2% increase from $4.97 trillion in 2020 and representing a compound annual growth rate of 5.3% over the five-year period. This period witnessed substantial volatility, with trade surging 11.0% in 2021 as the global economy rebounded from pandemic-induced disruptions, rising 8.1% in 2022 amid continued recovery and elevated commodity prices, stalling at 0.6% growth in 2023 as aggressive monetary tightening dampened activity, then recovering with 4.9% growth in 2024 and moderating to 2.0% in 2025. Global trade rose by $0.30 trillion in the first half of 2025, with the United States recording a notable 14% jump in imports as businesses front-loaded purchases ahead of anticipated tariff implementation. The US goods and services trade deficit widened sharply to $78.3 billion in July 2025, the highest in four months, as imports increased more than exports despite a meager 0.3% rise in export values.

The dramatic rebound in 2021 reflected the release of pent-up consumer and business demand following COVID-19 lockdowns, massive fiscal stimulus that boosted purchasing power, and inventory rebuilding across supply chains. Import growth significantly outpaced export growth throughout the period, with the goods portion of the trade deficit hitting a record $1.2 trillion in 2024 and the cumulative goods deficit from January through May 2025 reaching $0.647 trillion across $0.903 trillion in exports versus $1.55 trillion in imports. The temporary trade balance improvement in 2020, when the goods and services deficit shrank to approximately $0.626 trillion due to pandemic-related declines in imports, proved short-lived as 2021 ushered in economic reopening and the deficit rebounded strongly. The slowdown in 2023 occurred as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively to combat inflation, strengthening the US dollar and reducing both export competitiveness and import demand for discretionary goods.

Trade patterns underwent significant structural shifts from 2020 to 2025 as supply chain realignment accelerated. Efforts to nearshore production shifted sourcing patterns, with deficits with China easing slightly while deficits with Mexico, Vietnam, and India grew substantially, reflecting a diversified global manufacturing footprint. The implementation of comprehensive tariffs beginning in April 2025 created extraordinary distortions in trade flows, as businesses rushed to import goods before tariff rates escalated. The statutory tariff rate reached 18.6% as of August 2025, with rates including 25% on most foreign-manufactured vehicles and automotive components, 25% on all heavy-duty trucks, and the revocation of the de minimis exemption for packages valued at $800 or less. Services trade contributed significantly to total trade growth, though the goods deficit remained the central driver of overall trade imbalances.