Total trade value

Total US trade is projected to reach $6.48 trillion in 2026, marking a stagnant 0.5% increase from $6.45 trillion in 2021 and representing a compound annual growth rate of 3.3% over the five-year period. This period witnessed substantial volatility, with trade surging 11.0% in 2021 as the global economy rebounded from pandemic-induced disruptions, rising 8.1% in 2022 amid continued recovery and elevated commodity prices, stalling at 0.6% growth in 2023 as aggressive monetary tightening dampened activity, then recovering with 4.9% growth in 2024 and moderating to 2.3% in 2025. Imports recorded a notable 14.0% jump in the first half of 2025 as businesses front-loaded purchases ahead of anticipated tariff implementation. The US goods and services trade deficit contracted sharply by 6.7% in 2026, with imports contracting slightly by 0.5% while exports grow by 2.0%.

The dramatic rebound in 2021 reflected the release of pent-up consumer and business demand following pandemic lockdowns, massive fiscal stimulus that boosted purchasing power and inventory rebuilding across supply chains. Import growth mostly fell in line with exports throughout the period. The slowdown in 2023 occurred as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively to combat inflation, strengthening the US dollar and reducing both export competitiveness and import demand for discretionary goods.

Trade patterns underwent significant structural shifts from 2021 to 2026 as supply chain realignment accelerated. Efforts to nearshore production shifted sourcing patterns, with deficits with China easing slightly while deficits with Mexico, Vietnam and India grew substantially, reflecting a diversified global manufacturing footprint. The implementation of comprehensive tariffs beginning in April 2025 created extraordinary distortions in trade flows, as businesses rushed to import goods before tariff rates escalated. The trade-weighted average tariff rate is 13.0% as of February 2026, with rates including 100.0% on branded pharmaceutical products, 41.1% on steel and aluminum, 25.0% on most foreign-manufactured vehicles and automotive components and the revocation of the de minimis exemption for packages valued at $800 or less. Services trade contributed significantly to total trade growth, though the goods deficit remained the central driver of overall trade imbalances.